Thursday, March 12, 2020

Newsletter: Travel Bans, Stimulus Plans and a Pandemic

This is the web version of the WSJ’s newsletter on the economy. You can sign up for daily delivery here.

Learning to Fly

President Trump announced a 30-day ban on some travel from Europe into the U.S. and said he would act to offer financial assistance to those affected by the coronavirus pandemic. The State Department advised U.S. citizens against all travel abroad, even to countries not yet experiencing an outbreak. The virus has spread to more than 100 countries, roiled markets and disrupted daily life across the country and around the world. The restrictions are sure to hurt the airline industry, already suffering from a plunge in travel as the virus has taken hold, and are likely be a major blow to Europe’s economy, Andrew Restuccia, Alex Leary and Kate Davidson report. The travel ban excludes the U.K.

More countries are announcing wide-ranging travel restrictions, including India and South Korea.

WHAT TO WATCH TODAY

U.S. jobless claims are expected to rise to 219,000 from 216,000 a week earlier. (8:30 a.m. ET)

The U.S. producer-price index for February is expected to fall 0.1% from the prior month. (8:30 a.m. ET)

The European Central Bank releases a policy statement at 8:45 a.m. ET and ECB President Christine Lagarde holds a press conference at 9:30 a.m. ET. Ms. Lagarde is expected to announce a stimulus package.

Follow the WSJ’s live coronavirus coverage here.

TOP STORIES

Rescue Me

Mr. Trump also said he would take emergency action “to ensure that working Americans impacted by the virus can stay home without fear of financial hardship.” He said any aid would be targeted for workers who are ill, quarantined or caring for others. Mr. Trump also said he would instruct the Internal Revenue Service to push back the April 15 tax-payment deadline for certain individuals and businesses. And effective immediately, the Small Business Administration will offer low-interest loans to help small businesses overcome temporary economic disruptions.

The coronavirus pandemic is putting Mr. Trump’s economic policy-making to the test. Administration officials—at times at odds with one another—are seeking to coordinate government action to soften the anticipated blow to the economy. So far, that coordination has been more ad hoc than organized or torn from the classic crisis playbook, which has administration policy makers acting in concert with the Federal Reserve and seeking buy-in from congressional leaders from both parties before announcing a policy response, Kate Davidson, Andrew Restuccia and Nick Timiraos report.

House Democrats rushed to complete an economic package and win support from the Trump administration before a scheduled weeklong break. The package would provide for paid sick leave for people affected by the coronavirus and expand unemployment insurance, among other measures. Democratic lawmakers plan to pass it on the floor Thursday, though it is unclear how much Republican support it will have, Natalie Andrews and Andrew Duehren report.

One thing no one is talking about: How much any of this will add to the deficit. The annual budget gap has more than doubled since Mr. Trump took office, pushing past $1 trillion late last year.

Britain’s government and central bank announced a rare joint stimulus plan to combat the debilitating effects of the coronavirus on the economy. The Bank of England cut its benchmark interest rate by half a percentage point, revived a program to support lending to small and midsize businesses and trimmed bank capital requirements to further boost credit. Treasury chief Rishi Sunak announced a range of measures to help businesses, including tax holidays, government refunds for staff sick pay and a £500 million hardship fund to support the neediest workers, Jason Douglas and Paul Hannon report.

Australia said it would spend $11.42 billion to try to stave off a recession that would be its first in nearly three decades. Prime Minister Scott Morrison said Thursday spending would be targeted at small- and medium-size businesses, the unemployed and pensioners, and was in addition to $1.56 billion in funding for pop-up respiratory clinics and other health-care measures announced earlier this week, David Winning and James Glynn report.

Bulls and Bears

The longest-ever bull market for U.S. stocks ended Wednesday. The downturn, marked by a 20% decline from the most recent high for the Dow Jones Industrial Average, heightens fears that the economic expansion that began following the financial crisis could also be on its last legs. Stocks have crumbled, oil prices have tanked and U.S. government bond yields have plumbed record lows in the face of the rapidly spreading virus, Akane Otani and Karen Langley report.

The spread of the new coronavirus has reached a pandemic, spanning 112 countries and regions, the World Health Organization declared. The WHO generally defines a pandemic as a disease that has become widespread around the world, with an impact on society. The term has been applied to only a few diseases in history—a deadly flu in 1918, the H1N1 flu in 2009 and HIV/AIDS among them, Betsy McKay, Jennifer Calfas and Talal Ansari report.

The NBA abruptly suspended its season after a player tested positive for the coronavirus and the NCAA said that March Madness will be played with no fans on an extraordinary day of upheaval in American sports.

The New York City St. Patrick’s Day Parade has been postponed over concerns about the virus.

Italy ordered the nationwide closure of all restaurants and bars along with most stores, as it raced to contain the worst outbreak outside China.

Tom Hanks and his wife, Rita Wilson, have tested positive for the coronavirus, the Oscar-winning actor tweeted on Wednesday.

Auto sales in China collapsed in February, as the epidemic shut factories and dealerships and forced consumers to stay home. Sales were down 79% from a year earlier, with just 310,000 vehicles sold nationally. That was the industry’s worst monthly performance in modern times.

What to Watch

The impact of the novel coronavirus is rippling through U.S. and global economies, but it could take a few months to fully see the fallout in government data. What should we watch for the earliest signs of disruption? U.S. jobless claims are out each Thursday. The series is noisy but look to see if historically low numbers start to tick up. And keep a close eye on the University of Michigan’s consumer-sentiment survey this Friday. The survey, published twice a month, will offer a gauge of Americans’ economic perceptions during early March when coronavirus fears were mounting, Sarah Chaney reports.

Can’t wait till Friday? Research firm Morning Consult conducts daily consumer sentiment surveys. Right now, they show confidence on the decline. “One possible explanation for the strong and persistent decline in consumer confidence is the recent volatility in U.S. equity markets,” said Morning Consult economist John Leer.

TWEET OF THE DAY 

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