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Profit Warning
Some American companies say they could lose as much as half their annual revenue from China if the coronavirus epidemic extends through the summer. Nearly half of U.S. companies in China said they expect revenue to decrease this year if business can’t return to normal by the end of April, according to a survey by the American Chamber of Commerce in China. One fifth of respondents said 2020 revenue from China would decline more than 50% if the epidemic continues through Aug. 30. American companies cited global travel disruption as their biggest obstacle to business and said reduced productivity and employees’ inability to get to work are among their greatest challenges, Julie Wernau reports.
WHAT TO WATCH TODAY
U.S. durable goods orders for January are expected to fall 1.5% from the prior month. (8:30 a.m. ET)
U.S. gross domestic product for the fourth quarter is expected to advance at a 2.1% pace, unrevised from an earlier reading. (8:30 a.m. ET)
U.S. jobless claims are expected to rise to 214,000 from 210,000 a week earlier. (8:30 a.m. ET)
U.S. pending home sales for January are expected to increase 2% from the prior month. (10 a.m. ET)
The Kansas City Fed’s manufacturing survey for February is out at 11 a.m. ET.
Chicago Fed President Charles Evans speaks on the economy and monetary policy at 11:30 a.m. ET.
Japan industrial production and retail sales data for January are out at 6:50 p.m. ET.
TOP STORIES
Hit Parade
Companies and industries around the globe are warning about potential economic hits and taking steps to limit their exposure to the coronavirus outbreak.
- Microsoft warned that supply-chain disruptions would dent this quarter’s sales, the second major tech company after Apple to lower expectations because of the public-health crisis in China.
- Marriott International, the world’s largest hotel company, said it could have about $25 million less in fee revenue a month this year, compared with its outlook, assuming current low occupancy rates in the Asia-Pacific region continue.
- Nestlé told more than 290,000 employees to suspend all international business travel until March 15, and requested that all domestic trips be skipped whenever possible for now. Other companies trying to navigate the epidemic are adding new restrictions.
- The global airline industry is recalibrating its response to a threat that could be its worst since the financial crisis a decade ago. Deutsche Lufthansa, Germany’s flagship airline, said it would start slashing costs in anticipation of a coming hit to revenues and profits from canceled flights to China. Some big Asian carriers are resorting to more extreme measures: Cathay Pacific Airways, Hong Kong’s flag carrier, has asked all its staff to take three weeks of unpaid leave.
Germany’s economy was already faltering. Then came the coronavirus. Companies in Europe’s largest economy are rushing to to unclog bottlenecks in complex global supply chains built up over decades. They frequently thread through China and Italy, two of the countries most affected by the virus. As the number of confirmed infections in the country rose to 19 on Wednesday, Germany faces a direct threat at home as well, Tom Fairless and William Boston report.
Authorities across Europe, meanwhile, are in a bind over whether to call off fashion shows, soccer games and other major gatherings.
What are economists saying? Moody’s Analytics expects the virus to cause China’s economy to contract in the first quarter and knock a full percentage point off of full-year growth, bringing it down to 5.4%. In the U.S., the virus is forecast to knock 0.6 percentage point off of first-quarter gross domestic product and 0.2 percentage point off of full-year figures, leaving growth at a 1.3% in the first quarter and 1.7% for the entire year. That’s if the virus is contained. “A pandemic will result in global and U.S. recessions during the first half of this year.”
Now for the Good News
U.S. new-home sales in January rose to the highest level in more than a decade, the latest dose of positive news for the housing market and broader economy. Newly built single-family home sales reached an annual pace of 778,000 at the start of the year, the highest level since July 2007. “Today’s report is consistent with other indicators that suggest the housing market is generally healthy and that residential investment will contribute positively to Q1 GDP growth,” said J.P. Morgan economist Michael Feroli.
Of course, not even the housing market is immune to the coronavirus. Toll Brothers Chairman and CEO Douglas Yearley told analysts this week that production constraints in China are affecting the supply of lighting and some small appliances. “Longer-term, there’s some chatter about whether steel will become an issue, but we’re not feeling that yet.”
Counterpoint: Across the Western U.S., rising home prices have pushed more people who can’t afford houses or apartments to live in vehicles, including RVs. In Los Angeles, 16,500 people called a vehicle their home last year. In San Francisco that figure was 1,800, up 45% from 2017, and in Santa Clara County, the number nearly tripled over that same time frame to 1,747. An estimated half a million people are homeless in the U.S., with the problem most acute along the Northeastern seaboard and West Coast where housing costs are highest, White House officials said in a 2019 report. If the problem has an epicenter, it is the San Francisco Bay Area, the nation’s most expensive housing market, Jim Carlton and Will Parker report.
WHAT ELSE WE’RE READING
Subprime borrowers didn’t drive the housing boom that went bust in 2006. Rather, they quickly got priced out of the hottest markets. “We also show that seemingly fraudulent activities were not overly concentrated among subprime borrowers. Our analysis contributes to a ‘new narrative’ that rapid U.S. house price appreciation during the 2000s was mainly driven by prime borrowers. Hence, policy prescriptions intended to limit access to credit for marginal borrowers may be insufficient by themselves to prevent a future housing boom,” economists James Conklin, W. Scott Frame, Kristopher Gerardi and Haoyang Liu write at the New York Fed’s Liberty Street Economics blog.
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