Newsletter: Americans Are Moving at the Lowest Rate on Record

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Good morning. Jeff Sparshott here to take you through the day’s top economic news. You can also keep up with the week’s key events by signing up for the WSJ’s economic calendar and its concise previews, forecasts, analysis and links to coverage.

Going Nowhere Fast

Americans are moving at the lowest rate on record. New Census Bureau data show 9.8% of the U.S. population age 1 and older changed addresses over the past year, the smallest share in records dating back to 1948. The latest figures highlight a long-term decline in American mobility—through much of the 1950s and 1960s around 20% of the population moved to a new home each year. For better or worse, people now seem more settled in place, possibly because of housing costs, a spouse’s job, family ties, they’re getting older or they’re just happy where they are. Even so, it seems Americans are limiting their ability to relocate to more prosperous areas with more jobs. In 2019, the most commonly cited reason for a move: 17% wanted a new or better home or apartment. Just over 12% moved for a new job or transfer, and less than 1% struck out because they lost a job or wanted to find work.

WHAT TO WATCH TODAY

The European Central Bank releases minutes from its Oct. 23-24 meeting at 7:30 a.m. ET.

U.S. jobless claims are expected to fall to 217,000 from 225,000 a week earlier. (8:30 a.m. ET)

The Philadelphia Fed’s manufacturing survey for November is expected to slip to 5.0 from 5.6 a month earlier. (8:30 a.m. ET)

The Cleveland Fed’s Loretta Mester speaks at a financial stability conference at 8:30 a.m. ET.

U.S. existing-home sales for October are expected to rise to an annual rate of 5.46 million from 5.38 million a month earlier. (10 a.m. ET)

The Conference Board’s leading economic index for October is expected to fall 0.2% from a month earlier. (10 a.m. ET)

The European Commission’s advance reading of eurozone consumer confidence for November is out at 10 a.m. ET.

Japan’s consumer-price index for October is out at 6:30 p.m. ET.

TOP STORIES

Talk the Talk

China’s chief trade negotiator invited his American counterparts for a new round of face-to-face talks, according to people briefed on the matter, as both sides are struggling to strike a limited deal to help de-escalate tensions. U.S. negotiators have indicated they would be reluctant to trek across the Pacific unless China makes it clear that it would make commitments on intellectual-property protection, forced technology transfers and agricultural purchases, Lingling Wei and Eva Dou report.

President Trump is blaming China for lagging negotiations. “China would much rather make a trade deal than I would,” Mr. Trump said while visiting a Texas plant where Apple assembles computers. “I haven’t wanted to do it yet. Because I don’t think they’re stepping up to the level that I want.” The White House announced plans for a limited “phase one” deal nearly six weeks ago but there has been little apparent progress since, Catherine Lucey and Tripp Mickle report.

U.S. Consumers on Target

Target solidly beat analysts’ estimates for its fiscal third quarter and Lowe’s results also were pleasing, especially in light of Tuesday’s disappointment from Home Depot. Underscoring the reports is the simple reality that in a world of decent, but not stellar, consumer-spending growth, retailing is reduced to a near zero-sum game of winners and losers, driven by companies’ ability to grab and hold onto market share. If the battle for retail market share is intense now, it could get even fiercer in the year ahead. While U.S. consumers are in good shape, job growth seems likely to continue to slow—if only because with the unemployment rate at 3.6% there are only so many people left to hire—and overall U.S. income will slow, too, as a result, Justin Lahart writes.

Negative Interest Rates? Nope

As part of its yearlong policy review, the Fed took stock of its potential toolkit at last month’s meeting, running through various options for stimulating growth after cutting rates to zero. Perhaps unsurprisingly, the Fed views the tools it used during and after the 2008 downturn—forward guidance, or more explicit signaling about its rate plans, and bond-buying programs—as preferable to those that it didn’t use—including negative interest rates and a cap on certain longer-dated Treasury securities.

Don’t say you weren’t warned. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell and others have emphasized that the results of the review are likely to be “evolutionary” rather than “revolutionary.” The discussion in the minutes released Wednesday was reminiscent of the following observation made three years ago by economist Jon Faust, currently a senior adviser to Mr. Powell: “You might try some of the stuff that has not been tried yet, but there is a reason it hasn’t been tried yet: because folks didn’t think it was going to be as good as what they were doing.” —Nick Timiraos

Lifestyles of the Rich and Famous

Steep taxes on the ultra-wealthy are, for some, not a means to an end but an end itself. They see the very existence of extreme wealth as inimical to economic growth, middle-class prosperity and democracy. But should billionaires be taxed to the point that they are no longer billionaires? In a 2016 book, economist Caroline Freund, now global director for trade at the World Bank, found that countries with a lot of billionaires per capita had higher incomes per capita. She also found a country’s share of the world’s billionaires, as compiled by Forbes, corresponded closely to its share of the world’s largest, most successful companies. While this doesn’t mean billionaires make an economy successful, it does show the two go hand in hand, Greg Ip writes.

Stuck in a Moment

The global economy is at risk of settling into a low-growth rut without urgent action to roll back recently erected obstacles to trade and greater investment in tackling climate change, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development said Thursday. The Paris-based research body said it expects world output of goods and services will increase this year at the slowest pace since the financial crisis. But it doesn’t now expect any pickup in global economic growth next year, and only a modest acceleration in 2021, Paul Hannon reports.

What’s Your Degree Worth?

Want to know which college degrees are instantly paying off and which ones leave graduates loaded with debt but skimpy income? The WSJ’s new interactive tool allows you to look up student debt and first-year salaries by major and school. The data are fascinating.

WHAT ELSE WE’RE READING

A U.S.-China trade deal could be bad news for the rest of the world. “In the absence of a meaningful boost in China’s domestic demand and imports, bilateral purchase commitments are likely to generate substantial trade diversion effects for other countries. For example, the European Union, Japan, and Korea are likely to have significant export diversion in a potential deal that includes substantial purchases of U.S. vehicles, machinery, and electronics by China,” Eugenio Cerutti, Shan Chen, Pragyan Deb, Albe Gjonbalaj, Swarnali Hannan and Adil Mohommad write in an IMF working paper.

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