This is the web version of the WSJ’s newsletter on the economy. You can sign up for daily delivery here.
Central bank hawks are pushing back against interest-rate cuts, economists are doing some soul searching, and Chicago teachers may soon follow autoworkers onto picket lines. Happy Friday. Let’s take a look at today’s key economic news.
When Doves Cry
A global dash to lower interest rates is meeting resistance. Major central banks have seen more internal dissent over adding stimulus or have opted to leave monetary policy unchanged in recent weeks, a shift after a wave of easing earlier this year amid cooling global growth, Tom Fairless reports.
- Central-bank “hawks,” who mostly oppose stimulus and support raising rates to guard against excessive inflation, have become more vocal, saying such efforts aren’t needed for expanding domestic economies with low unemployment. Some also warn such measures can risk investment bubbles and other harmful side effects.
- At the U.S. Federal Reserve and European Central Bank, the so-called doves have prevailed, winning support this month for a rate cut as insurance against economic risks.
- The hawks’ objections aren’t likely to alter the policy course for now. But such open divisions fuel headaches for investors trying to anticipate central-bank actions. Financial markets have seesawed as participants digested sometimes contradictory messages.
WHAT TO WATCH TODAY
U.S. durable-goods orders for August are expected to fall 1.0% from a month earlier. (8:30 a.m. ET)
U.S. personal income for August is expected to rise 0.4% and consumer spending is expected to rise 0.3% from a month earlier. (8:30 a.m. ET)
The U.S. personal consumption expenditure price index for August, excluding food and energy, is expected to rise 0.2% from a month earlier and 1.7% from a year earlier. (8:30 a.m. ET)
The University of Michigan consumer sentiment index for September is expected to register at 92, unchanged from a preliminary reading earlier this month. (10 a.m. ET)
Fed Vice Chairman Randal Quarles speaks on regulations at 8:30 a.m. ET and the Philadelphia Fed’s Patrick Harker speaks on the economic outlook at 1:00 p.m. ET.
The Baker Hughes rig count is out at 1 p.m. ET.
TOP STORIES
Soul Searching
Economists are in the middle of some soul-searching about their profession and its treatment of women and members of minority groups. About two-thirds of female economists responding to a survey by the profession’s main trade group, the American Economic Association, said they felt disrespected and excluded by their colleagues. The final report includes some sobering personal statements.
- One female economist described “stalking, unwanted touching, more or less forced sexual intercourse, etc.” and her reluctance to report incidents involving “one very insistent suitor at a conference because he was very well known and I was very junior.”
- One African American economist wrote: “I would not recommend my own (black) children to go into this field. It was a mistake for me to choose this. Had I known that it would be so toxic, I would not have.”
- The economists association has taken steps to improve the climate within the profession, in particular by banning the practice of holding job interviews in hotel rooms. But Thursday’s report suggests there’s a lot more work to do.
—David Harrison
[wsj-responsive-sandbox id = "0" ]Death: 100% Certain. Taxes: 86% Certain.
Americans pay about 86% of their federal taxes, leaving a $381 billion annual gap between taxes owed and taxes collected, according to an Internal Revenue Service study. Among the largest drivers of tax compliance? Third-party information reporting and withholding. Wage earners know that the IRS has a Form W-2 showing how much money they made and a year’s worth of withheld taxes. For such income, the IRS says just 1% is underreported. At the other extreme, owners of cash businesses know that the IRS has little if any independent information about their revenue and expenses. For that and other income without information reporting, 55% is misreported, Richard Rubin reports.
Strike One
Contract talks between General Motors and the United Auto Workers entered a critical stretch Thursday night, with bargainers focusing on big-picture issues such as wages, benefits and the use of temporary workers. Many smaller matters, including on workplace rules and safety protocols, had been largely resolved, Nora Naughton and Ben Foldy report.
- The strike, well into its second week, is rippling through Michigan’s already-slowing economy. The state is home to about 15 GM manufacturing facilities employing tens of thousands of workers.
- Customers and dealers nationwide are also feeling the pinch. Many vehicle owners are showing up at GM dealerships to find they are having to wait to get their cars fixed or serviced. The problem: a lack of replacement parts.
Strike Two
Teachers in Chicago Public Schools are a step closer to going on strike. A majority of union members authorized the action Thursday evening after lengthy negotiations failed. The Chicago Teachers Union, which could strike as early as Oct. 7, has made demands including better pay and benefits, more school staffing and smaller class sizes. The union also is making so-called social justice demands, such as more affordable housing for teachers and families, and stronger sanctuary protections for immigrant students, Tawnell D. Hobbs reports.
Trade Deficit Widens
The U.S. trade deficit in goods widened slightly in August, leaving trade a likely drag on third-quarter economic growth. The issues? Weak demand from factories overseas, a strong dollar and free-spending American consumers. U.S. exports of capital goods were down by 5% from a year earlier. Consumer goods imports, meanwhile, were up more than 4%.
Another Sign of China’s Softer Growth
Earnings at China’s large industrial companies dropped 2% from a year earlier in August amid slower sales. Separate data showed China’s producer prices fell further into deflation last month, piling pressure on manufacturers that had been struggling with the prolonged trade war with the U.S. Meanwhile, value-added industrial output grew at the slowest pace in more than a decade, underscoring sluggish demand and soft business confidence, Liyan Qi reports.
Location, Location, Location
Greenland’s fast-growing capital city of Nuuk (population 18,000) has a booming real-estate market. One reason? President Trump’s comments about buying the island, an autonomous territory in the Kingdom of Denmark. Though many Greenlanders and Danes were angry at first, local real-estate agents and tour operators say the attention generated by Mr. Trump led to an uptick in inquiries from outsiders interested in visiting or buying homes, Candace Taylor reports.
WHAT ELSE WE’RE READING
Climate change often gets treated with a cost-benefit analysis. How much will it cost to reduce emissions vs. how bad will it be if we don’t? The problem: “Economic assessments of the potential future risks of climate change have been omitting or grossly underestimating many of the most serious consequences for lives and livelihoods because these risks are difficult to quantify precisely and lie outside of human experience,” scholars at the London School of Economics, Columbia University and the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research write in a new report.
Sign Up for Our Calendar
Real Time Economics has launched a downloadable Google calendar with concise previews, forecasts and analysis of major U.S. data releases.
- To add to your Google Calendar on desktop, click here.
- To add to your Google calendar app on mobile, click here.
- If you prefer to view the calendar using a web browser, with the option of adding select Real Time Economics entries to your calendar, click here.
- And here’s our how-to.
Let us know what you think. This is a pilot project, so we’d appreciate your feedback.
from Real Time Economics https://ift.tt/2mfHeKd
No comments:
Post a Comment