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The Federal Reserve isn’t likely to raise interest rates today. How long until it does? Good morning. Jeff Sparshott here to take you through key developments in the global economy. Send us your questions, comments or suggestions by replying to this email.
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Fed officials say they’re not in a hurry to raise interest rates—and they’re not expected to on Wednesday. But just how patient will they be? Their statement and Chairman Jerome Powell’s press conference could help clarify that. The WSJ’s Nick Timiraos says officials may tweak their language to better reflect their wait-and-see approach. Other key issues:
- Fed officials are deep into a debate over shrinking their $4 trillion portfolio of bonds and other assets. Mr. Powell could face questions about the Fed’s emerging strategy, including how big a portfolio they’ll have at the end of the process.
- Fed officials also have to decide whether to change their economic risk assessment: is the economy more likely to perform better or worse than they expect? Investors are nervous over a number of potential threats to growth.
WHAT TO WATCH TODAY
Germany’s consumer-price index for January is out at 8 a.m. ET.
The ADP jobs report for January is expected to show a net gain of 183,000, down from the prior month’s 271,000 increase. (8:15 a.m. ET)
U.S. pending home sales for December are expected to rise 0.5% from the prior month. (10 a.m. ET)
U.S.-China trade talks begin in Washington, D.C.
The Federal Reserve releases a policy statement at 2 p.m. ET and Chairman Jerome Powell holds a press conference at 2:30 p.m. ET.
The Bank of Japan releases a summary of opinions from its Jan. 22-23 meeting at 6:50 p.m. ET.
China’s purchasing managers indexes for manufacturing and services are out at 8 p.m. ET.
TOP STORIES
KICKOFF
President Trump faces pressure to make a trade deal. Yes, China’s economy just posted its weakest growth in nearly three decades. And yes, Mr. Trump sees himself with the upper hand in talks. But Chinese countermeasures are unpopular among U.S. business groups and have hit Trump supporters in the Farm Belt, Rust Belt and oil industry, Vivian Salama reports. The stock market hasn’t reacted well to tariffs and threats of escalation.
High-level talks are set to begin Wednesday morning and conclude Thursday afternoon in Washington, D.C. The two sides remain far apart on a deal.
RIPPLE EFFECT
How is China’s slowdown affecting the rest of the globe? Apple’s total sales in the country fell 27% the three months ended Dec. 29. That’s partly because local rivals like Huawei Technologies and Xiaomi are increasingly competitive. But Apple also is grappling with a broader economic malaise in Greater China, a market that includes Hong Kong and Taiwan and accounts for one-fifth of total sales. Similar factors have cut into the revenue prospects of other technology firms, including Samsung Electronics, Intel and Nvidia, Tripp Mickle reports.
ROADSIDE ASSISTANCE
Beijing is trying to goose its economy. Markets aren’t eating it up. China’s government unveiled a flurry of measures designed to spur consumption, including new ways to stoke the country’s car market after it suffered its first annual sales decline in decades. The language, though, was conspicuously vague. Chinese auto stocks slumped and Bernstein autos analyst Robin Zhu termed the announcement a “nothing burger,” Jacky Wong writes.
HIGH ANXIETY
U.S. consumers, meanwhile, aren’t feeling that great. Confidence dropped in January for a third consecutive month as political discord in Washington, market turmoil and economic uncertainty weighed on U.S. households. The Conference Board’s consumer confidence index has now posted its largest three-month decline since October 2011, Sharon Nunn reports. Darkening expectations for the economy’s future performance drove January’s drop. Assessments of the present situation were little changed.
BREXIT OR BUST
British Prime Minister Theresa May plans to reopen Brexit negotiations with the European Union in a high-stakes bid to wring concessions from the bloc. Mrs. May’s position won support in the House of Commons in key votes Tuesday evening aimed at trying to break the parliamentary stalemate over the terms of the Brexit deal, Max Colchester reports.
Brussels isn’t having it—the EU says it won’t reopen the legally binding text of the Brexit withdrawal agreement. The U.K. is due to leave the EU on March 29, fewer than 60 days away. One potential scenario: delay the Brexit date.
EUROPE’S ECONOMIC HEADWINDS
The French economy slowed sharply last year as consumer spending and business investment cooled. That bodes ill for the eurozone’s outlook and underscores economic pain that has stirred violent antigovernment protests led by “yellow vests” across France in recent months. “The slightest shock would send France into recession,” said Laurent Clavel, head of macroeconomic research at AXA Investment Managers.
QUOTE OF THE DAY
We need a healthy economy, and we shouldn’t be embarrassed about our system. If you want to look at a system that’s non-capitalistic, just take a look at what was once, perhaps, the wealthiest country in the world, and today people are starving to death. It’s called Venezuela. —Former New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg (via The Boston Globe)
TWEET OF THE DAY
[wsj-responsive-sandbox id = "0" ]WHAT ELSE WE’RE READING
Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez wants to raise tax rates on high earners. Well…”It’s not widely understood, but in their 2017 tax bill, Republicans imposed top tax rate that can reach 60 to 70 percent on high-income corporate executives. This new higher tax rate in the 2017 tax bill probably hits more taxpayers than AOC’s top rate would,” Adam Looney writes at the Brookings Institute.
Laws aimed at lifting female representation on corporate boards don’t necessarily filter through to the C-Suites. Examining data from Italy, which adopted a gender quota law in 2011, a Center for Economic Policy Research paper concludes: “While the reform substantially raised the female membership on corporate boards, we find no evidence of spillover effects on the representation of women in top executive or top earnings positions.”
UP NEXT: THURSDAY
Germany’s employment report for January is out at 3:55 a.m. ET.
Eurozone gross domestic product for the fourth quarter is out at 5 a.m. ET.
U.S. jobless claims hit their lowest level since November 1969 in the week ending Jan. 19. They are expected to rise to 215,000 in the latest week. (8:30 a.m. ET)
The U.S. employment-cost index for the fourth quarter is expected to increase 0.8% from the prior quarter. (8:30 a.m. ET)
The Chicago purchasing managers index for January is expected to drop to 61.4 from 65.4 a month earlier. (9:45 a.m. ET)
U.S.-China trade talks continue in Washington, D.C.
from Real Time Economics https://on.wsj.com/2HEmPbz
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