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Good morning. Today we look at the steady rise in U.S. interest rates, how the Trump administration is and isn’t pressuring China, rising revenues at America’s largest aluminum producer, and the biggest country yet to legalize recreational marijuana.
RAISE THE ROOF
The Federal Reserve has lifted interest rates eight times since late 2015. President Trump doesn’t like it but broad trends show the increases haven’t derailed the economy: consumer spending is strong, job creation solid and there’s been a recent pickup in growth for the second-longest U.S. expansion on record. But higher rates aren’t without consequences. “Tighter Fed policy is indeed weighing on interest-sensitive spending (housing and autos),” says Phil Suttle of Suttle Economics.
The latest evidence: U.S. new-home construction fell last month and the pipeline isn’t looking great. Building permits hit a post-recession high in March but have since been trending lower, suggesting that higher rates are one factor reducing affordability and holding back the market. “But this is normal and not a sign of impending cyclical doom,” Mr. Suttle adds.
HIGHER AND HIGHER
So how high are rates going? Fed officials are debating whether they will need to raise them to levels sufficient to slow down a fast-growing economy and prevent it from overheating. Officials largely think interest rates are still so low that they are encouraging borrowing, investing and spending—boosting overall economic growth. At some point rates will cross into a neutral zone for the economy and then, if the Fed keeps pushing them up, they will become restrictive, slowing growth, Nick Timiraos reports.
“A few participants expected that policy would need to become modestly restrictive for a time,” the Fed said in minutes of its latest meeting. The big question is how much higher officials think rates need to go. The economy is now expanding at a rate faster than they judge is sustainable over the long run.
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WHAT TO WATCH TODAY
U.S. jobless claims, out at 8:30 a.m. ET, are expected to drop to 210,000 from 214,000 the prior week.
The Philadelphia Fed manufacturing survey for October, out at 8:30 a.m. ET, is expected to slip to 20 from 22.9 the prior month.
The Conference Board’s leading economic index for September, out at 10 a.m. ET, is expected to advance 0.5%.
The St. Louis Fed’s James Bullard speaks on the U.S. economy and monetary policy at 9:05 a.m. ET, and Fed Vice Chairman for Supervision Randal Quarles speaks on the economic outlook at 12:15 p.m. ET.
Japan’s consumer-price index for September is out at 7:30 p.m. ET.
China’s gross domestic product for the third quarter is out at 10 p.m. ET.
TOP STORIES
CHINA PASSES THE TEST
The U.S. Treasury again declined to designate China a “currency manipulator,” but singled out the nation’s practices as a source of “particular concern.” Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said China’s lack of currency transparency and the recent weakness in the yuan poses “major challenges to achieving fairer and more balance trade, and we will continue to monitor and review China’s currency practices,” Josh Zumbrun reports.
This is now the fourth of the semiannual reports in which the Trump administration hasn’t applied the manipulator designation to Beijing. The designation itself would be largely symbolic, because the U.S. is already cracking down on China’s trade practices.
NEITHER SNOW NOR RAIN, BUT MAYBE TRADE
The U.S. opened a new front in its mounting economic conflict with China, starting a process to withdraw from a 144-year-old international postal body whose discounts allow Chinese merchants to ship small packages to U.S. customers at sharply lower rates. Senior White House officials said Wednesday that the U.S. will go ahead with a threat to set its own “self-declared” rates for packages from abroad, Heidi Vogt reports.
CHINA INC.
China is trying to cultivate a new image—as an importer. A pivot point for the makeover is November’s China International Import Expo, a trade-show brainchild of President Xi Jinping, who has pledged to rebalance the Chinese economy and “chart the right course for economic globalization.” There’s skepticism: Despite the corporate enthusiasm to sell more in China, few foreign governments or multinational corporations appear keen for their most senior people to personally endorse the event, James T. Areddy reports.
TARIFFS AT WORK
Alcoa said higher U.S. aluminum prices from a tariff on imports and rising sales of the raw materials needed to make aluminum improved its revenue in the third quarter and drove up its profit outlook for the year. The Pittsburgh-based company reported a 14% increase in third-quarter revenue, Bob Tita reports.
Alcoa opposed the Trump administration’s blanket tariff on imported aluminum. While U.S. prices for the metal have climbed this year, the company’s heavy reliance on aluminum from foreign smelters, particularly those based in Canada, has limited its ability to benefit from the tariffs.
LEGALIZE IT
Canada became the largest country to legalize the recreational use of marijuana, a potentially watershed moment for a nascent cannabis industry that is banking on showing the drug can be safely regulated. There are widespread worries that a patchwork of retail regulations and a shortage of legal supply mean the black market won’t disappear soon. But legalization has already started to reshape Canada’s financial markets: There are more than 120 marijuana companies listed on Canadian stock exchanges, Paul Vieira reports.
One of the bigger risks for Canada is how the U.S. reacts. In the U.S., the use, sale or possession of marijuana is illegal under federal law. Attorney General Jeff Sessions is also a longtime critic.
QUOTE OF THE DAY
This is the growthiest economy in over 20 years. And we’ll get growthier in the weeks and months ahead. – White House economic adviser Lawrence Kudlow, speaking at a Cabinet meeting
TWEET OF THE DAY
[wsj-responsive-sandbox id = "0" ]WHAT ELSE WE’RE READING
Using debit cards is better for the environment than cash. “In 2015, a single debit card payment used the same amount of energy as an 8-Watt energy-saving light bulb in ninety minutes. A single cash payment used slightly more energy, equaling two hours,” according to a Dutch central bank study. The main reason for the higher cash footprint: transporting banknotes between banks, retailers and ATMs.
Diversity among high-skilled workers is good for the economy. “The gains from diversity are maximized when immigrants originate from economically or culturally distant countries (but not both), and when they acquired part of their secondary education abroad and their college education in the US. Overall, a 10% increase in high-skilled diversity raises GDP per capita by about 6%. On the contrary, lowskilled diversity has insignificant effects,” Frédéric Docquier, Riccardo Turati, Jérôme Valette and Chrysovalantis Vasilakis write in an Institute of Labor Economics discussion paper.
UP NEXT: FRIDAY
Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda speaks in Tokyo at 2:35 a.m. ET.
U.S. existing-home sales for September, out at 10 a.m. ET, are expected to fall to an annual pace of 5.29 million.
The Bank of England’s Mark Carney speaks to Economic Club of New York at 11:30 a.m. ET.
The Atlanta Fed’s Raphael Bostic speaks on the economic outlook at 12 p.m. ET, and the Dallas Fed’s Robert Kaplan participates in a moderated Q&A at 12:45 p.m. ET.
from Real Time Economics https://ift.tt/2EvkTk3
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