The Labor Department releases its monthly snapshot of the nation’s labor market Friday. Economists surveyed by The Wall Street Journal expect it to show employers created 195,000 jobs in April and that the unemployment rate fell to 4% for the first time since December 2000.
Here are five things to look for in the report.
1. Low unemployment. The jobless rate has been stuck at 4.1% since October, a 17-year low. That’s below the range of 4.3% to 4.7% that the Federal Reserve thinks will be the economy’s long-run average. The Fed forecasts unemployment will fall a bit further—to 3.8% by year end—as employers continue to hire and the pool of available workers dwindles.
2. Job growth. Hiring slowed in March: The 103,000 jobs added were the fewest of any month since September and among the weakest in recent years. That may have been a temporary setback. Indeed, hiring was strong in February, when employers added 326,000 new jobs. But if April produces another weak number, it could suggest a trend.
3. Paychecks. Workers’ hourly pay grew 2.7% in the year through March, a modest gain in line with the trend of the past two years. That paychecks aren’t growing faster suggests the labor market continues to have some slack—that is, there are more available workers out there than the low unemployment rate would suggest. But if this number picks up, it would suggest the market is indeed tightening. That could nudge the Fed to raise interest rates more aggressively than currently planned.
4. Labor-force participation. One sign of the economy’s health has been rising labor-force participation among prime-age Americans. The share of civilians ages 25 to 54 who have jobs or are actively looking for work stood at 82.2% in March, a seven-year high, though still below prerecession levels of around 83%.
5. Underemployment. While the official jobless rate has slipped to a 17-year low, a closely watched measure of unemployment and so-called underemployment hasn’t fallen as far. This measure, known as the U-6, takes into account part-time workers who want full-time jobs, and civilians too discouraged to look for work. The rate stood at 8% in March, tying an 11-year low but still above where it was at the century’s start.
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from Real Time Economics https://ift.tt/2IdBdqi
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