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This is an abbreviated edition of Real Time Economics. Regular publication resumes Monday.
In this edition, inflation approaches the Fed’s 2% target, tax audits drop, Amazon.com helps the post office.
FED’S TARGET IN SIGHT
Inflation could soon be back at the Fed’s 2% target. In February the Fed’s preferred price index rose 0.23% excluding food and energy, propelled by brisk health care inflation. While it’s only up 1.6% in the last 12 months, that’s largely because of very low monthly readings a year ago. In the last three months, prices have risen at a 2.8% annual rate. That suggests the 12-month rate could easily hit 2% in coming months as low year-ago readings drop out of the calculation. That won’t panic the Fed which has long expected such a rebound, but it strengthens the case for raising interest rates a bit faster this year.
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WHAT TO WATCH TODAY
U.S. Markets are closed for Good Friday.
China releases its official manufacturing purchasing managers’ index on Saturday. Economists expect it to have risen to 50.7 in March from 50.3 in February.
KOREA DEAL? NOT SO FAST
The U.S. and South Korea agreed earlier this week to amend their free trade agreement. Thursday, President Donald Trump said he may not finalize it until after “a deal is made with North Korea. You know why? Because it’s a very strong card.” It was unclear how delaying a trade deal with the south would persuade the north to denuclearize. “We’re trying to grasp the genuine intent behind President Trump’s remarks,” South Korean Minister of Trade, Industry and Energy Paik Un-gyu said Friday morning in Seoul.
THE TAXMAN DON’T COMETH AS MUCH
Just 0.62% of individual tax returns were audited by the IRS in the fiscal year that ended Sept. 30, the lowest since 2002, Laura Saunders writes. The audit rate has been dropping for six years as the IRS has lost a third of its enforcement staff. The business audit rate dropped to 0.44% from its peak of 0.71% in 2012.
10 YEARS AFTER THE CRISIS
Check out this richly illustrated and researched graphic narrative of what has changed and what hasn’t in the economy and finance since the bailout of Bear Stearns kicked off the global financial crisis a decade ago, by Cezary Podkul.
WHAT ELSE WE’RE READING
Job growth has accelerated most in counties that voted most heavily for Mr. Trump, according to Andrew Van Dam at the Washington Post. Counties that voted against him are still growing faster, but the gap has narrowed in the last year, the analysis found.
from Real Time Economics https://ift.tt/2uzmYqb
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