No More 10 Minute Breaks: Economists React to the September Jobs Report: ‘Nothing Good to See Here’

: “We are struggling to find much silver lining in the September jobs report,” said Jay Feldman of Credit Suisse.; ANDREW CABALLERO-REYNOLDS/AFP/GETTY IMAGES

Nonfarm payrolls increased a seasonally adjusted 142,000 in September, far below the trend over the past 18 months and short of analysts’ expectations. Job growth was also weaker earlier this summer than previously thought. The data is sobering for Federal Reserve officials as they contemplate raising interest rates for the first time since 2006. Here’s what economists had to say about Friday’s report:

“Nothing good to see here….Beyond the headline number, we see broad-based weakness in U.S. labor markets, with the past month’s revisions now showing a decidedly softer trend growth in jobs….We retain our view that rate hikes will be deferred past year end and we believe this employment report substantially reduces the probability of a rate hike from the Federal Open Market Committee this year.” —Michael Gapen, Rob Martin, and Jesse Hurwitz, Barclays Research

“The weaker employment growth over the past few months is a surprise given recent solid economic data….It could be that businesses have turned cautious in the wake of the recent financial market turmoil. But job growth should rebound through the rest of this year on the back of consumer spending and housing. In summary, the 142,000 rise in September payroll jobs, along with a 59,000 downward revision to job growth in July and August combined, declines in household employment and the labor force, and flat average hourly wages, constitute a disappointing jobs report for September. This likely rules out an increase in the fed funds rate when the FOMC next meets in late October, and a mid-December rate increase now looks less likely. Financial markets are now pricing in the first increase in the funds rate in March.” –Gus Faucher, PNC

“We are struggling to find much silver lining in the September jobs report, which delivered downside surprises in the headlines, details, and revisions….The private-sector job profile was even gloomier than the top line….Public Fed commentary (even from Fed ‘doves’) has been guiding the market strongly towards a rate hike by year-end. And there are still two jobs reports between now and the December FOMC meeting. Our central call is still for a December liftoff, but today’s disappointing jobs data do little to support the case for a higher policy rate this year.” –Jay Feldman, Credit Suisse

“The U.S. economy added a very meagre 142,000 jobs in September, marking the slowing pace of jobs growth since March. This comes on the heels of the equally disappointing 136,000 gain in August. Net revisions were particularly weak at -59,000, while the sharp drop in the labor force underscores some souring in the outlook for the labor market. There is no redeeming quality to this report and it does point to a germane weakening in U.S. labor market momentum. No special factors were at play here.” — Millan Mulraine, TD Securities

“Given good household real income growth and rates at zero our assessment is this is a soft patch, though clearly the tightening in financial and monetary conditions and external demand weakness is a factor. We expect the economy to continue to grow above trend. At this stage we pushed the date of lift off to March. Our concern is that the data is reflective of something more worrying about the underlying health of the U.S. economy, but at this point it is a bit too early to tell. A more sustained soft patch or weather disruptions could alter the Fed’s plans in [the first quarter] and push liftoff back yet another quarter.” –BNP Paribas

“This is dovish for the Fed, but bearish for equities….Today’s employment report is much weaker than had been expected, and although it should push the probability of October Fed action to zero, the slowed pace of job gains is disconcerting. Today’s report is likely to dampen expectations of a Fed rate hike for December.” –Jason Schenker, Prestige Economics

“The stock market is hopelessly confused. Fed zero rates are going to continue for longer, but I guess this Fed stimulus is not going to help if the U.S. economy tanks. The jobs market struck out in September as far as the Fed’s concerned. No rate hike in October now certainly, and 2015 looks increasingly impossible. If the committee was looking for more improvement, this isn’t it.” –Chris Rupkey, Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi

“It will be very interesting to see if upcoming public commentary from Fed officials is less insistent that liftoff remains likely before year-end. If the October meeting results in no move, the next opportunity will be the Dec. 15-16 parley, which could still be a possibility if labor market data firm up (there will be two jobs reports in the interim) and other economic news is decent. However, that meeting will in all likelihood coincide with a colossal mess on the fiscal policy front given that the continuing resolution currently funding the federal government expires on Dec. 11. That may well not be a situation that the Fed would wish to aggravate with an initial tightening move.” –Joshua Shapiro, MFR

“A much weaker than expected employment report….All in all, these data help the case for the Fed to stay on hold in October, but that was expected, anyway. There will be two more employment reports before the December meeting.” –Jim O’Sullivan, HFE

“In one line: Grim payrolls, with no real explanation; wages depressed by calendar quirk….It would now be hugely surprising if the Fed were to raise rates this month; October was always an outside bet, in our view, but now it won’t happen. This Fed is not in the habit of delivering adverse surprises to markets. December remains live, though, with two more employment reports due before the meeting and no sign of softening—outside the small manufacturing sector—in surveys of hiring and firing.” –Ian Shepherdson, Pantheon Macroeconomics

“Saying 2015 is off the table as far as the FOMC is concerned need not be said, but we will say it because we have to….Looking forward, the FOMC is facing exactly the world they feared most—slowing growth and no real rate cuts to give to the market.” –Steve Blitz, ITG Investment Research

“Today’s employment release of only a lackluster gain of 142,000 jobs is a likely a critical data point for Fed policy and certainly a major disappointment for the broad economy—but not necessarily for retail. Retail employment excluding auto, gas and food services, increased by 18,700 jobs seasonally adjusted in September, and are up 213,700 on a year-over-year basis.” –Jack Kleinhenz, NRF Chief Economist

“It’s nigh impossible to read the last four months’ gradual deterioration in the labor markets and think the Fed can remain confident on the jobs picture….It’s hard to find many positive themes in the September labor market report, which imperils a 2015 Fed rate hike.” –Janney Montgomery Scott

“Holy disappointing jobs report! Headline weakness coupled with nonexistent wage growth, and a further decline in the participation rate suggests the U.S. labor market is undergoing a significant slowdown in the second half of the year. Furthermore, keep in mind, weakness in the labor market generally translates into weakness in headline economic activity as well….From the Fed’s perspective—I imagine they are thinking one word: Phew! Thank goodness we bypassed September. With two consecutive months of significant headline weakness, in our opinion, October is very much off the table, as is a rate increase by the end of the year.” –Lindsey Piegza, Stifel

No More 10 Minute Breaks

Friday, October 2, 2015

Economists React to the September Jobs Report: ‘Nothing Good to See Here’

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